大葉大學圖書館 |

Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability /

紀錄類型:	書目-語言資料,印刷品 : Monograph/item
杜威分類號:	336.3094
書名/作者:	Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability // edited by Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila.
其他題名:	Uncertain Demographics & Fiscal Sustainability
其他作者:	Alho, Juha,
面頁冊數:	1 online resource (xvi, 282 pages) : : digital, PDF file(s).
附註:	Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015).
標題:	Population forecasting - Statistical methods. - Europe
標題:	Demography - Mathematical models. - Europe
標題:	Population forecasting - Methodology. - Europe
標題:	Fiscal policy - Econometric models. - Europe
標題:	Human services - Finance
標題:	Europe - Commerce - To 1500.
ISBN:	9780511493393 (ebook)
內容註:	Introduction / Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila -- Part I: Uncertain demographics -- Changing views of future demographic trends / Nico Keilman, Harri Cruijsen and Juha M. Alho -- Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty / Juha M. Alho, Harri Cruijsen and Nico Keilman -- Comment: The UPE forecasts : strengths, innovations, developments / Shripad Tuljapurkar -- Part II: Measuring sustainability in a stochastic environment -- Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty: comparisons across the European Union / Martin Weale -- Demographic uncertainty and pension projections / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Demographic uncertainty and health care expenditure / Namkee Ahn -- Comment: Assessing the uncertainty in long-term fiscal projections / Pablo Antolin -- Part III: Enhancing sustainability -- Evaluating pension reforms in the German context / Hans Fehr and Christian Habermann -- Longevity adjustment of pension benefits / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Ageing, demographic uncertainty and optimal fiscal policy / Alex Armstrong [and others] -- Comment: Computable equilibrium models in policy analysis: future directions / D. Peter Broer -- Part IV: Extensions -- Macro-economic consequences of demographic uncertainty in world regions / Vladimir Borgy and Juha M. Alho -- Informational assumptions, aggregate mortality risk and life-cycle saving / Juha M. Alho and Niku Määttänen -- Uncertain demographics, longevity adjustment of the retirement age and intergenerational risk-sharing / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Ole Hagen Jørgensen -- A general equilibrium analysis of annuity rates in the presence of aggregate mortality risk / Justin Van De Ven and Martin Weale -- Comment: The economics of demographic uncertainty / Martin Flodén.
摘要、提要註:	There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.
電子資源:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511493393

Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability /
Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability /Uncertain Demographics & Fiscal Sustainabilityedited by Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila. - 1 online resource (xvi, 282 pages) :digital, PDF file(s).

Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015).

Introduction / Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila -- Part I: Uncertain demographics -- Changing views of future demographic trends / Nico Keilman, Harri Cruijsen and Juha M. Alho -- Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty / Juha M. Alho, Harri Cruijsen and Nico Keilman -- Comment: The UPE forecasts : strengths, innovations, developments / Shripad Tuljapurkar -- Part II: Measuring sustainability in a stochastic environment -- Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty: comparisons across the European Union / Martin Weale -- Demographic uncertainty and pension projections / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Demographic uncertainty and health care expenditure / Namkee Ahn -- Comment: Assessing the uncertainty in long-term fiscal projections / Pablo Antolin -- Part III: Enhancing sustainability -- Evaluating pension reforms in the German context / Hans Fehr and Christian Habermann -- Longevity adjustment of pension benefits / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Ageing, demographic uncertainty and optimal fiscal policy / Alex Armstrong [and others] -- Comment: Computable equilibrium models in policy analysis: future directions / D. Peter Broer -- Part IV: Extensions -- Macro-economic consequences of demographic uncertainty in world regions / Vladimir Borgy and Juha M. Alho -- Informational assumptions, aggregate mortality risk and life-cycle saving / Juha M. Alho and Niku Määttänen -- Uncertain demographics, longevity adjustment of the retirement age and intergenerational risk-sharing / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Ole Hagen Jørgensen -- A general equilibrium analysis of annuity rates in the presence of aggregate mortality risk / Justin Van De Ven and Martin Weale -- Comment: The economics of demographic uncertainty / Martin Flodén.

There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

ISBN: 9780511493393 (ebook)Subjects--Topical Terms:

415078
Population forecasting
--Statistical methods.--EuropeSubjects--Geographical Terms:

340547
Europe
--Commerce--To 1500.

LC Class. No.: HB849.53 / .U53 2008

Dewey Class. No.: 336.3094

Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability /
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505 0 $a Introduction / Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila -- Part I: Uncertain demographics -- Changing views of future demographic trends / Nico Keilman, Harri Cruijsen and Juha M. Alho -- Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty / Juha M. Alho, Harri Cruijsen and Nico Keilman -- Comment: The UPE forecasts : strengths, innovations, developments / Shripad Tuljapurkar -- Part II: Measuring sustainability in a stochastic environment -- Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty: comparisons across the European Union / Martin Weale -- Demographic uncertainty and pension projections / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Demographic uncertainty and health care expenditure / Namkee Ahn -- Comment: Assessing the uncertainty in long-term fiscal projections / Pablo Antolin -- Part III: Enhancing sustainability -- Evaluating pension reforms in the German context / Hans Fehr and Christian Habermann -- Longevity adjustment of pension benefits / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Ageing, demographic uncertainty and optimal fiscal policy / Alex Armstrong [and others] -- Comment: Computable equilibrium models in policy analysis: future directions / D. Peter Broer -- Part IV: Extensions -- Macro-economic consequences of demographic uncertainty in world regions / Vladimir Borgy and Juha M. Alho -- Informational assumptions, aggregate mortality risk and life-cycle saving / Juha M. Alho and Niku Määttänen -- Uncertain demographics, longevity adjustment of the retirement age and intergenerational risk-sharing / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Ole Hagen Jørgensen -- A general equilibrium analysis of annuity rates in the presence of aggregate mortality risk / Justin Van De Ven and Martin Weale -- Comment: The economics of demographic uncertainty / Martin Flodén.
520 $a There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.
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650 0 $a Demography $z Europe $x Mathematical models. $3 415079
650 0 $a Population forecasting $z Europe $x Methodology. $3 415080
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650 0 $a Human services $x Finance $x Forecasting. $3 415082
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